Tonight is the start of the 2024 Election cycle with the First in the Nation Iowa Caucuses. There will be a record set tonight. And it wont be on the turn out side.
No the record for tonight will be the coldest Iowa Caucus to date. The windchill will make into the -30s below zero tonight. Bitter cold.
Who will be the winner of the Iowa Caucus? This is the biggest question on the minds of political pundits and any interested in watching the political results.
It will not be any one of these: Asa Hutchinson, Ryan Binkley, or any other lesser known candidates out there who think they have a chance. These will all get less than 1% of the vote tonight.
It will not be Vivek Ramaswamy. Although he is good on a few massage points. He is not a Christian and that does turn a lot of people off from him. Especially here in the Heartland. But he is likely to get 5% of the vote.
It will not be Nikki Haley. She bashed Iowa while campaigning in New Hampshire. Calling their primary vote corrects what happens in Iowa. This was a bad move on her part. And will turn off a lot of potential Iowa voters from her message. But she will do better than Vivek.
That leaves us with President Trump and Ron DeSantis. Both have strong supporters and many endorsements.
President Trump has been leading all the polls since the beginning. So much that he hasn’t even bothered to participate in the earlier debates. The Trump base is unshakably loyal to the 45th President. And he will do well in the Iowa Caucus.
Ron DeSantis has a good ground game in Iowa. He has the endorsement of the Iowa Governor and others. But he is seen as weak by many and untested in the national arena.
The winner of the Iowa Caucus will be one of these two men. Given the majority support that Trump has he could easily pull it off. However, given the record cold temperature tonight. Many might say “Well Trump has it in the bag. I’m gonna stay home.” This just might be enough to push the DeSantis team to victory.
I will be at my local precinct caucus tonight. I will be voting for my candidate of choice. I will be running for elected positions within my precinct and county.
And I will be keeping an eye on the results.
The RNC is saying that all candidates for the 2024 Presidential election must sign a loyalty pledge to support the eventual nominee or they wont be allowed to debate. This is mainly aimed at President Donald Trump who rejected such a pledge back in 2016 and is so far rejecting such a pledge now.
However, Speaker Ryan has come out to state he would not attend the national convention if Trump was the nominee. I’m sure others would also make such statements as well.
If you want to go down this route with loyalty oaths. Make the entire RNC delegation pledge to support the nominee. Even if it is Trump and see how many want to sign it.
If that produces a lot of push back. Drop the idea. Loyalty pledges aren’t for the Republic. Democracies or all totalitarian Leftist states certainly. But they have no place on the right.
I am not for any one specific Republican candidate right now. I know of at least 3 people running for the nomination and there will be more. But right now I can’t say who I will support.
The year was 1992. Jay Leno became the host of “The Tonight Show” following Johnny Carson’s departure. We were still five years away from Hanson MMMBopping their way into our hearts. And a funny little man from Texas had the attention of a nation with some pretty radical ideas for the time.
I’m speaking of the late Ross Perot, two-time Presidential candidate under the Reform Party and favorite target for late night comedians. What has been lost to time has been just how impactful Perot was on politics in his relatively short time in it. Without his presence in the 1992, we might not have gotten a President Bill Clinton, a Vice President Al Gore, and a First Lady Hillary Clinton. Of course, we might not have had that if George H. W. Bush had campaigned like he wanted a second term as President, but that’s not important right now. What is important is how some people can impact an election merely by being in it.
What does that have to do with the upcoming 2024 Presidential election? Two words: bacon cheeseburger. And two more words: Donald Trump. Although Trump has already announced he is running as a Republican in 2024 (as his early attempts to attack Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis show), there’s still a part of me that thinks he will go third party if he doesn’t get the nod.
Can you say “Ross Perot 2: Electoral Boogaloo”? I knew you could.
Right now Trump has a significant, but not total, amount of support within Republican circles, especially with the grassroots. Much like Perot before him, Trump has advanced some unique ideas that, shockingly, make a lot of sense. And also like Perot, Trump has a level of unpredictability that makes him damn near impossible to figure out. But there is one thing that isn’t that hard to figure out: Trump loved being President.
And apparently I’m addicted to using colons.
Anyway, being President was clearly Trump’s favorite position because it afforded him more power than he’s ever had, along with more attention than he’s ever had. From a brand standpoint, there is no real downside because even negative attention is attention. Just ask Kim Kardashian. Even now, people can’t stop talking about him, whether it be blaming him for train derailments and Chinese balloons flying over the country, praising him to no end, or screaming about how he’s getting away with everything and should be thrown in jail.
So, completely rational mentions.
What happens if the Trump Train goes off the rails and he doesn’t get the nomination? There are going to be a lot of pissed-off people, enough to…oh, I don’t know…convince Trump to run as a third party candidate. And guess who gets the biggest benefit, even though he’s been an inept fuckknuckle as President?
Puddin’ Head Joe.
If Trump goes third party, is weakens the Republican candidate, whoever it is. That adds a lot of pressure on him or her to sway Trump voters, which may be a fool’s errand. Most Trump voters are Ride or Die with him, no matter what. And anyone who isn’t living a Boo Radley type existence knows it, which means Leftists will pick up on it in a couple of weeks.
Although the conventional political wisdom says third parties hurt Republicans more than Democrats, it’s only been an issue in recent history because third parties have siphoned enough votes away from a candidate to weaken the primary party candidate. Whether it’s Ross Perot, Ralph Nader, or Jill Stein, third parties get the rap for a candidate underperforming. With Trump, though, it is all but a certainty he will be the cause of a Republican defeat.
There are two ways to avert this scenario: let Trump win, or nominate someone who can sway Trump voters to vote for him or her. The former sets up a rematch with Puddin’ Head Joe, while the latter opens the door for a Trump third party run, thus ensuring history repeated itself. And a Trump-Biden rematch isn’t a guaranteed victory for the former President, even with Biden having the Midas Touch in reverse. There’s still enough hatred of the former President out there to make it tougher for him to win.
So, fucked if you do, fucked if you don’t.
Good luck with that.