One of the most pressing political questions on people’s minds right now (aside from how much Nancy Pelosi has had to drink) is whether former President Donald Trump will run for President in 2024. That may be a closely guarded secret, even moreso than the Nancy Pelosi question. A lot of people are sure he’s going to run while others are convinced he’s either not going to run or will be in prison by 2024, thus making it a moot point.
The fact is no one knows for sure. I’m not even sure if Trump knows yet, but in the interest of whipping up more wild speculation online, I did some thinking on the subject and I think I have some points to consider. Granted, I’m not inside the former President’s head, so I can’t say for certain what you’re about to read is accurate, but I can tell you it’s bound to be a lot more accurate than any reporting done by Vox. (A low bar, sure, but hey, I gotta start somewhere.)
He’s Running
1) His base is still pretty strong – Contrary to Leftist belief, Donald Trump still remains pretty popular within Republican and conservative ranks. The fact he still polls higher than most candidates after being out of office is a testament to his staying power within the GOP. And his supporters are still on board the Trump Train, no matter what. Honestly, I’d have to go back to Ronald Reagan to find a Republican with that kind of supporter loyalty, which is a testament to Trump.
2) He’ll be running against a weak field on both sides – Let’s face it. Neither major party has a deep bench going into 2024. On the Left we have President Joe Biden, who I’m not sure knows he is President, and possibly Vice President Kamala Harris, whose word salads make Biden look like William F. Buckley. Although there may be more challengers to the left of Biden and Harris, they may not jump into the race out of fear of being Bernie Sanders-ed. On the other side of the aisle, no one seems to be jumping out as a front runner. There is talk of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis being a front-runner for the Republicans, but as of yet, there has been no confirmation he’s running. That leaves Donald Trump to fill the void.
3) Unfinished business – In recent decades, we’ve gotten used to Presidents serving two terms, which makes it easier for Presidents to postpone certain pet projects until later in his Presidency. With Joe Biden winning in 2020, that interrupts or completely scuttles Trump’s plans…or does it? If Trump feels he has more to do, he may throw his hat into the ring as a means to get things done, and with 4 more years, it will be interesting to see what he takes on and how quickly it gets done. Operation Warp Speed may get left in the dust.
4) Sticking it to the Left – If there’s one thing Donald Trump is good at, it’s tweaking the Left. If you though Leftists’ heads exploded the first time, wait until Trump runs again, even if it’s just to get a predictable response out of them. If life gave out achievements like video games do, Trump would get the Trolling Leftists achievement without even really trying.
5) New voting laws for old voter fraud – In the aftermath of the 2020 election, some Republican-lead states enacted new voting laws, much to the chagrin of the Left. In spite of their caterwauling, Republicans put together some pretty solid proposals to restrict voter fraud where possible while taking some of the Left’s concerns about access to the polls into consideration. Since Trump’s post-Presidency legacy has revolved around voter fraud, he may use this as a platform to reenter the Presidential race and whip up support for this pet project.
He’s Not Running
1) Been there, done that – Trump has already been President once, and it’s caused a lot of headaches for him and his family, due in no small part to Leftists. At this point, even he has to wonder if it was worth it the first time around. To run again and possibly win opens up old wounds, rekindles old rivalries, and creates another level of emotional strain. Being President even once isn’t wussy work, and it takes a strong resolve and a stronger family to do it twice. Since he’s been President once, there may not be a desire to do it again.
2) The DeSantis factor – I know I mentioned Ron DeSantis earlier as not being in the race yet, but the possibility of him entering the race can’t be discounted yet. Since becoming Governor, DeSantis has shown many of the positive traits Trump supporters love while mitigating some of the negative traits that hurt Trump. From a strategic standpoint, if DeSantis can deliver the Trump agenda without the drawbacks, it may be better for the former President to step aside and delegate authority.
3) He’s a known entity – One of the things that frustrated the Left in 2016 was how Trump was able to beat Hillary Clinton. Although he’s spent a lot of time in the public eye (sometimes for the wrong reasons), there were still a lot of question marks surrounding his political savvy. In 4 years, though, many of those question marks have been answered because we’ve seen how he governed. He no longer has the element of surprise he did in 2016. Without it, he is more vulnerable.
4) The Agony of Defeat – It’s no secret Donald Trump has an ego, as do most politicians. What sets him apart from most politicians is how much of his ego is wrapped up in what he’s done or able to do. It was evident from when he was dealing in real estate in the 80s, when he was starring in “The Apprentice,” and when he was sitting in the White House. As such, the 2020 election loss stung him. This sets up a conflict within himself should he run again. His ego will not accept him losing a second time, but it may force him to run again to avenge the loss. Regardless of the decision, the possibility of losing again may be a deciding factor in whether he runs in 2024.
5) Voter fraud is still a concern – In spite of the aforementioned new voting laws, Leftists still have ways to play the system, thanks to our old friend Uncle George Soros. As we saw in 2020, it’s not only important to have the votes to win, but to have people in place to certify you have the votes to win. That’s where Uncle George has placed a lot of his faith (and more than a few dollars and candidates). Even with the new laws, voter fraud may be a concern, one that Trump may not be able to overcome.
I’m sure there are some factors I’ve missed, but I think I’ve hit enough of the big ones to get people to think and offer up their own wild-ass speculations!
